What are the odds?

I came so close once.  I came this close (four inches) from getting a hole in one on the golf course.  It was at Pokegama Golf Course in Grand Rapids, Minnesota.  I can't remember how old I was, but I know that it was such a long time ago.  It was on the old #8, a par three that went back toward the clubhouse.  Usually an eight or nine iron, depending on the wind.  I don't recall my swing or the shot specifically, but I remember was how close I was to the hole.  That picture is indelibly etched into my mind.  Four inches to the right.  Perfect distance, but my aim was four inches off.  Just four lousy inches.

You'd think that with all of the golf shots on par 3s that I have played in my lifetime one of them would have gone in.  But sadly, no.  No holes in one for this guy.  The odds for getting a hole in one in golf don't seem too bad.  For a professional golfer, the odds are that 1 shot in 2,500 shots is going to go in on a par three.  For an amateur (that would be me) the odds jump a bit - one shot in 12,500 shots is going to go in.

So let's figure this out... I usually play out at the Great Life Worthington Golf Course.  There are four par threes in eighteen holes - #2, #8, #10, and #14.  Hole #10 seems like the most likely candidate to get a hole in one.  The distance is about 110 yards, depending upon where the tee is located.  Hole #14 would be the most difficult being that it is 186 yards from tee to green.  The other two are reasonable - #2 is only 155 yards while #8 is 158 yards.  Chances would be better on those two than on #14.  So, I'm going to figure I have as good a chance as any to get my first hole in one on either #2, #8 or #10.  If I use those three as my base, and I am also using the 12,500 number for the odds, that means if I play 4,167 rounds of golf with those par threes the chances are that I should get a hole in one on one of those rounds.. 

Let's do that!

Why is this a thing for me right now?  That's a fair question.  I guess I just need a diversion from the constant barrage of COVID 19 updates that are everywhere.  Now that golf courses are open in Minnesota (with social distancing measures in place) persons can at least get out and play a round or two.  Whether a person likes to walk, bike, jog, run, golf or swim, it's nice to get some physical exercise in during the day. 

I will post when that hole in one happens.  It might take a while (4,167 rounds of golf is a lot of golf!) but the way I look at it, I'm due!  I'd better get started!